IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
New Mexico St.
Western Athletic
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+5.8	#92
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	60.4	#338
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.6	#102

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+3.1	#89

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	1.0%	1.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	4.1%	4.3%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	58.3%	59.4%	39.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.5%	0.5%	0.0%
Average Seed	12.5	12.4	14.5

.500 or above	99.3%	99.6%	94.4%
.500 or above in Conference	99.5%	99.7%	96.3%
Conference Champion	74.3%	76.0%	44.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

First Four	1.7%	1.5%	5.8%
First Round	57.7%	58.9%	37.2%
Second Round	13.0%	13.6%	3.2%
Sweet Sixteen	4.3%	4.5%	1.0%
Elite Eight	1.1%	1.2%	0.1%
Final Four	0.4%	0.5%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dixie St. (Away) - 94.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 3	2 - 1	2 - 1
Quad 4	14 - 1	16 - 3

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Jan 08, 2021	337	@ Dixie St.	W	68-50	95%
Jan 09, 2021	337	@ Dixie St.	W	68-50	94%
Jan 22, 2021	231	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-62	87%
Jan 23, 2021	231	UT Rio Grande Valley	W	75-62	87%
Jan 29, 2021	177	@ Grand Canyon	W	70-66	62%
Jan 30, 2021	177	@ Grand Canyon	W	70-66	62%
Feb 05, 2021	271	California Baptist	W	77-62	90%
Feb 06, 2021	271	California Baptist	W	77-62	90%
Feb 12, 2021	286	@ Seattle	W	74-64	79%
Feb 13, 2021	286	@ Seattle	W	74-64	79%
Feb 19, 2021	291	Utah Valley	W	76-60	90%
Feb 20, 2021	291	Utah Valley	W	76-60	91%
Feb 26, 2021	340	@ Tarleton St.	W	77-59	93%
Feb 27, 2021	340	@ Tarleton St.	W	77-59	92%
Mar 05, 2021	345	Chicago St.	W	74-47	98%
Mar 06, 2021	345	Chicago St.	W	74-47	98%
Projected Record						14 - 2	14 - 2

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-16	1-15	2-14	3-13	4-12	5-11	6-10	7-9	8-8	9-7	10-6	11-5	12-4	13-3	14-2	15-1	16-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.4	2.8	9.0	18.0	24.4	19.7		74.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.0	0.5	2.6	5.2	5.7	3.2				17.2	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.4	1.7	2.1	1.0	0.2					5.5	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	0.8	0.7	0.3							2.0	4th
5th							0.0	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0								0.7	5th
6th						0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0										0.2	6th
7th					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0											0.1	7th
8th				0.0	0.0		0.0												0.0	8th
9th																				9th
10th																				10th

Total				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	1.4	3.0	5.4	9.0	14.9	21.2	24.4	19.7			Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
16-0	100.0%	19.7		19.7
15-1	100.0%	24.4		23.1	1.3
14-2	85.0%	18.0		13.8	4.1	0.1
13-3	60.5%	9.0		5.0	3.6	0.4	0.0
12-4	31.4%	2.8		1.0	1.2	0.6	0.0	0.0
11-5	7.8%	0.4		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-6	0.6%	0.0			0.0	0.0	0.0
9-7	0.0%
8-8	0.0%

Total	74.3%	74.3		62.6	10.4	1.2	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
16-0	19.7%		82.3%	81.3%	1.0%	9.0		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.2	1.7	1.5	2.0	2.6	1.4	0.2	0.0		3.5		5.2%
15-1	24.4%		71.0%	71.0%	0.0%	13.0										0.0	0.1	0.5	3.7	8.3	4.2	0.5		7.1		0.1%
14-2	21.2%		58.0%	58.0%		13.9												0.0	0.4	3.3	5.8	2.6	0.2	8.9
13-3	14.9%		47.4%	47.4%		14.7													0.0	0.4	2.5	3.3	0.8	7.9
12-4	9.0%		36.8%	36.8%		15.3														0.0	0.5	1.5	1.4	5.7
11-5	5.4%		25.5%	25.5%		15.6														0.0	0.0	0.4	0.9	4.0
10-6	3.0%		17.1%	17.1%		16.0															0.0	0.0	0.5	2.4
9-7	1.4%		13.9%	13.9%		16.0																0.0	0.2	1.2
8-8	0.6%		12.0%	12.0%		16.0																	0.1	0.6
7-9	0.3%		8.6%	8.6%		16.0																	0.0	0.3
6-10	0.1%		7.7%	7.7%		16.0																	0.0	0.1
5-11	0.0%																							0.0
4-12	0.0%																							0.0
3-13	0.0%																							0.0
2-14
1-15
0-16

Total	100%		58.3%	58.1%	0.2%	12.5		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.7	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.2	1.7	1.5	2.5	6.7	13.3	13.2	8.3	4.1	41.7		0.5%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	16.0%	100.0%	8.9	0.2	0.3	1.3	4.6	8.6	10.4	9.9	7.5	10.5	9.2	12.4	15.8	8.2	1.0	0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	2.4%	7.6%	11.8									0.3	0.5	1.8	2.7	2.2	0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	1.2%	1.0%	12.4												0.7	0.3	0.1